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Copper at highs and raw materials: what changes for Swiss companies in 2025-2026

In a nutshell. Copper recorded a rise of over 35% year-on-year in May 2026 (source: Trading Economics / LME data), with a particularly marked acceleration between October 2025 and February 2026. For Swiss SMEs in construction, the machinery industry and plant engineering, the impact on production costs is real. The good news is that tools to manage the risk exist — but they require planning, not reaction.

"Doctor Copper": why copper says something about the economy

Copper is informally nicknamed "Doctor Copper" precisely because its demand reflects real industrial activity: it is used in construction, electricity grids, machinery, vehicles, electronics. When prices rise sharply, it usually means global industry is turning — and vice versa.

The 2025-2026 rise has both structural and cyclical components. On the structural side, the energy transition is a huge and growing source of demand: renewables, electric vehicles and distribution grids require quantities of copper much higher than traditional technologies. On the cyclical side, China — which alone absorbs about 51% of world copper — has kept demand sustained despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

On the supply side, the situation is less positive: Chile (the world's leading producer) faced significant cost cuts at Codelco, the largest state-owned producer, and official LME stocks have shrunk — a sign of a market under tension between demand and availability.

The 2025-2026 trend

The copper trend in 2025 showed two distinct phases: a relatively stable first part (until September), then a sharp acceleration in the last quarter of 2025 and in the first months of 2026. Between October 2025 and February 2026 the price rose by more than 20% in less than four months (monthly LME data). In May 2026 the year-on-year rise exceeds 35%.

For an SME that buys copper as a raw material, this translates directly into an increase in the variable cost of production. For those with fixed-price contracts with clients without revision clauses, it means a margin compression that can be very significant.

Most exposed Swiss sectors

Not all SMEs are exposed in the same way. In Switzerland, the sectors with the greatest impact are:

MEM industry (machinery, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering): it is the most exposed production sector, because it imports almost entirely the necessary raw materials and cannot leverage its own resources. Swissmem, the sectoral association, has published specific guidelines for raw materials risk management — a sign that the problem is felt.

Construction and plant engineering: electrical wiring, plumbing systems, pipes, electrical panels — everything goes through copper. Swiss construction showed mixed signals in 2025: orders growing (especially in public works and housing), but also an acceleration of bankruptcies in the specialised construction sector.

Electronics and automotive: electric vehicles contain significantly more copper than a petrol car. With the growth of EVs, the sector's dependence increases structurally.

Renewable energies: solar panels, wind turbines and distribution grids are among the largest consumers of copper per unit of installed capacity.

The broader picture: not just copper

Copper is not the only raw material in motion in 2025-2026. The general picture:

• Gold: sustained rise due to geopolitical risks and demand for protection.
• Lithium: strong rebound after the 2023-2024 collapse, driven by the recovery of demand for EV batteries.
• Steel: more contained growth, around 4-5% year-on-year.
• Aluminium: relatively stable, in line with 2024.
• Brent oil: around 95 USD/barrel (May 2026).
• Timber: limited movements, relatively stable prices.

For manufacturing and construction SMEs, the scenario is one of pressure on several fronts at once, not only on copper.

How the best-prepared SMEs manage risk

The right answer is not to hope prices fall. It is to build a risk-management strategy proportionate to one's own size.

Mapping the dependency: the first step, before any cover, is to understand how much copper (or other metals) weighs on total production cost. Swissmem offers a "Metal Risk Check" specific to MEM-industry companies. Without this baseline, any strategy is blind.

Supplier diversification: depending on a single supplier or a single geographic area (e.g. Chile, Congo) increases risk. Diversifying is more expensive in the short term, but reduces vulnerability.

Strategic stocks: when prices are at acceptable levels, buying stock for 3-6 months of production can be rational — if cash flow allows. It is not speculation, it is stock management.

Clauses in client contracts: inserting raw-material indexation clauses in quotes and contracts is standard practice in exposed sectors. It allows the cost variation to be passed to the client above a certain threshold. Those who still do not do so expose themselves to invisible margin losses until the year-end report arrives.

Forward operations (hedge): LME futures contracts allow today's copper price to be locked in for future purchases. They require a minimum financial structure, but are also accessible to SMEs through banks.

The recommendation from kmu.admin.ch, borrowing from the KOF's indications, is clear: "In periods of instability, one must reduce dependence on risky regions." It is not just strategic advice — it is an operational survival measure.

The outlook for 2026

The forecasts of the main banks for copper in 2026 are oriented upwards, but with some variability: UBS estimates quotations between 12,000 and 13,000 USD/tonne, Goldman Sachs between 10,000 and 12,650 USD/tonne. These are estimates, not certainties — copper volatility is structurally high.

Factors to watch are: the trend of Chinese demand (a leading indicator of global industrial production), the actual pace of the energy transition and electrification, the investment decisions of major mining producers, and geopolitical tensions that can interrupt supply flows.

For an SME, the practical conclusion is this: plan as if raw material prices remained high in 2026. If they then fall, it is a pleasant surprise. The opposite is much more costly.

How we help

For an SME with high exposure to raw materials, analytical accounting is the tool that turns a market figure (copper price +35%) into a concrete management response: how much does it weigh on production cost? On which order? On which margin? Without this visibility, the entrepreneur discovers the problem only when seeing the financial statements — often too late.

Fidav supports Ticino and Swiss SMEs with up-to-date accounting and with the financial planning support needed to take informed decisions, including on raw materials risk management. Read more on our accounting and financial administration and on corporate and strategic consulting.

Do you want to understand how raw materials volatility affects your company's margins? Chat with us on WhatsApp at +41 79 741 02 89 or call +41 91 640 40 20.

FAQ (visible on page + FAQPage schema above)

Why has the price of copper risen so much in 2025-2026? The rise is driven by several factors: Chinese demand (about 51% of world copper), the energy transition (renewables, EV, electricity grids), shrinking LME stocks and supply problems in Chile. To these are added speculative elements and the weakened dollar, which makes copper more accessible to international buyers.

Which Swiss sectors are most exposed to expensive copper? The most exposed sectors are the machinery and electrical engineering industry (MEM), construction and plant engineering, electronics and automotive. The Swiss MEM industry is particularly vulnerable because it imports almost entirely the necessary raw materials.

How can a Swiss SME protect itself from copper volatility? The main strategies are: mapping the dependence on critical metals (Swissmem has a specific tool), diversifying suppliers, building strategic stocks, inserting indexation clauses in client contracts, and considering forward operations to lock in prices over predictable horizons.

Is it only copper moving or other raw materials too? In 2025-2026 several metals moved significantly: gold posted important rises due to geopolitical risks, lithium rebounded after the 2023-2024 collapse, steel recorded contained growth. Aluminium remained relatively stable. Copper is the one with the most direct implications for Swiss industry.

What are the forecasts for the copper price in 2026? UBS estimates quotations between 12,000 and 13,000 USD/tonne, Goldman Sachs between 10,000 and 12,650 USD/tonne for 2026. These are estimates oriented upwards but with high uncertainty. The practical recommendation for SMEs is to plan as if prices remained high, without betting on a fall.